Economics and politics

Economics and politics (63)

Articles on economics from a political perspective.

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The present international financial system centred around the US dollar is under pressure from several factors: the use of the dollar to punish other countries, the inflation in the US, the increasing US indebtedness, and the appearance of digital currencies and their potential for making international payments much faster and cheaper without using the dollar. The future is probably a fragmented and regionalised international financial system and a much reduced role of the dollar. But can it work?
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Central Bank Digital Currencies are coming, and even if they initially will be used only domestically, they are bound to start playing a role in international payments too. This will diminish the need for US dollars in international trade and hence also lessen the US control with the international payment system. No surprise that the US is not at all enthusiastic about this development.
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Despite much talk about the coming dedollarisation of the World Economy, the dollar continues to be the preferred currency for international trade and for building up foreign exchange reserves. There is no risk for the US that the Chinese Yuan will take over this role. But in the same way as US hegemony is about to give way to a multipolar world power system, the dollar hegemony will probably give way to a much more fragmented international financial system.
Sunday, 09 October 2022 22:28 in Economics and politics

The great decoupling

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Whether there will be a technological and trade decoupling between China and NATO+ is not up for discussion any longer – it is already ongoing. What we still don’t know, is how far it will go, and how fast. A vicious political circle may imply that it will go very far, and very fast, at least if the US is to decide. Whether China will be able to prosper despite this technology war, is anybody’s guess. My guess is that it will.
Sunday, 28 August 2022 23:40 in Economics and politics

Playing with fire

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Many countries build up reserves of gold and foreign exchange to hedge against sudden adverse events. As the currencies such as the US dollar and the Euro are not linked to any physical asset (as e.g., gold), their value is based on trust (called fiat money). However, the increasing politicization of the international financial system is eroding this trust. This may have far-reaching repercussions as some countries are now looking for alternatives.
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It looks as if sanctions haven’t had the expected disastrous consequences for Russia compared to say Iran, Venezuela and Cuba, at least in the short term. But what about the longer perspective? Will the Russian economy implode or stagnate? Or will it be able to survive and perhaps even prosper? History tells us that both scenarios are possible and that the outcome to a high degree depends on how well the situation is managed and the legitimacy of the political leadership.
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