Politics & Economics - Contents

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Things don’t look particularly good for the EU lately. Economic stagnation, reports pointing to falling competitivity in key sectors, negative economic impact of the sanctions, increasing financial burden from the Ukraine war, caught up in the middle of the US-China confrontation, and so on. There are ways out of this, but political and institutional factors question the ability of EU to succeed.

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It is increasingly clear that Russia is unlikely to be defeated militarily by NATO in Ukraine, and it looks as if its economy will be able to overcome the obstacles created by the unprecedented sanctions. The sanctions and the war have produced profound changes in the Russian economy and society, including within the ruling classes, the contours of which by now it is only partly possible to discern. So what does its future look like after the Ukraine war ends?

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Russia is struggling to control a stubbornly high inflation. The Russian Central Bank blames the shortage of manpower, which in their view is producing ‘wage-push-inflation’, so they want unemployment to go up by stopping economic growth. But there are other ways to control inflation that would be more beneficial to common people in Russia.

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After a period of relative calm, mainstream media have lately, once again, been flooded with articles predicting the imminent collapse of Russia’s economy. The sanctions, together with the financial burden of the war in Ukraine, should finally be working, so Russia is now under severe strain, and we will in 2025 see the collapse. Is there any truth in this?

Sunday, 05 January 2025 21:38 in Politics

What should the world expect from Trump?

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Despite his rhetoric, the new Trump presidency means more continuity than break with the Biden Administration. However, there are a few issues, where there may be a break with the past. One of these is the stop for immigration and deportation of ‘unauthorised’ immigrants. This will affect both the countries where the immigrants come from and the US itself.

Thursday, 02 January 2025 22:25 in Politics

Why Trump may not end the war in Ukraine

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The EU is worried that Donald Trump returning to the White House will mean peace in Ukraine, as Trump has claimed that he can achieve peace on his first day in office. That is unlikely to happen. The reason is that Trump will have to show that he has made a bargain which favours the US, but Russia is unlikely to deliver that. So the war is more likely to continue in 2025, and may even escalate before it ends. Unfortunately. I sincerely hope I am wrong.

Monday, 14 October 2024 23:22 in Politics

Does Israel have a future?

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It may look weird to question whether Israel has a future, when it is just now successfully quashing its enemies Hamas and Hizbollah with US support. They are winning, so of course they have a future, right? Firstly, are they really winning? And secondly, Israel is a settler-colonialist project which has turned into an apartheid state. Their strategy is to drive out the Palestinians from Greater Israel, and they are counting on the world looking the other way while they do it. Will it? Will we?

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As it is often stated, all wars must eventually end, and that is also valid for the Ukraine war. War fatigue is now clearly observable in Ukraine and among some of Ukraine’s Western backers, despite repeated insistence on continuing ‘as long as it takes’. There has up to now been a tacit agreement within NATO not to discuss the option of a negotiated peace openly, so the mantra is still that Putin is the new Hitler and anything but a Russian defeat is unacceptable. But rumours are that discussions are now ongoing in the corridors.

Sunday, 25 August 2024 23:38 in Politics

The President in his labyrinth

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The President of Ukraine, Volodymir Zelensky, has taken advantage of the state of emergency in the country to concentrate all powers in his hands, including deciding how the war shall be conducted. Before winning the elections in 2019 he was an actor (and comedian). Perhaps this is why he is so obsessed with the media, and this may explain his many weird, and apparently self-defeating, decisions. Striving for short-term media successes when leading a country in war, does not bother well.

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According to the neoliberal, globalist dogma, dominating the world since the roaring nineties, immigration is a win-win situation as people move from low-paid jobs in the developing countries to more productive and higher paid jobs in the developed countries. Everybody wins, right? Not so. The losers are the low-skilled workers in the developed countries, which creates resentment and political radicalisation, and it is no recipe for development in the developing countries. Solution? Move the jobs, not the people.
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