The loss of lives of soldiers in the Ukraine war is horrific. We don’t know how many are dying, but nobody doubts the number is terrifying high. A recent study gives us a glimpse of what is going on. It shows that 63% of the Ukrainians respond that they have at least one close relative or friend who died, 78% if we include the injured. This is insane. The US, NATO and EU say this should continue for “as long as it takes”. Do they have a good reason for letting this bloodbath continue?
Politics & Economics - Contents
Most of the European and North American left considers itself as guardians of universal rights and values. They are campaigning for sanctions and – if needed – military intervention against countries or “regimes” that are not living up to these universal standards, and they expect their governments, the US, EU and NATO to carry out the necessary punitive measures to enforce the standards. They haven’t noted that this is no longer possible. It is imperial overreach.
Is dedollarisation a chimaera or is it real? (III)
The present international financial system centred around the US dollar is under pressure from several factors: the use of the dollar to punish other countries, the inflation in the US, the increasing US indebtedness, and the appearance of digital currencies and their potential for making international payments much faster and cheaper without using the dollar. The future is probably a fragmented and regionalised international financial system and a much reduced role of the dollar. But can it work?
Is dedollarisation a chimaera or is it real? (II)
Central Bank Digital Currencies are coming, and even if they initially will be used only domestically, they are bound to start playing a role in international payments too. This will diminish the need for US dollars in international trade and hence also lessen the US control with the international payment system. No surprise that the US is not at all enthusiastic about this development.
Is dedollarisation a chimaera or is it real? (I)
Despite much talk about the coming dedollarisation of the World Economy, the dollar continues to be the preferred currency for international trade and for building up foreign exchange reserves. There is no risk for the US that the Chinese Yuan will take over this role. But in the same way as US hegemony is about to give way to a multipolar world power system, the dollar hegemony will probably give way to a much more fragmented international financial system.
The mainstream thinking in the West is that Ukraine and NATO are winning the war. So the main discussions is how a desperate, defeated Russia will act. You know, wounded animals are dangerous. But what if – hypothetically, of course, against all the clever military expert opinions – it is the other way around? How will NATO react to being defeated in Ukraine? Will it be total war?
Was China’s handling of the Covid epidemic really a failure?
After China in December 2022 suddenly changed course from zero-Covid to total termination of all restrictions, all the usual Western China bashers were rejoicing. See, it was a failure! We handled the epidemic the right way, while Xi’s China bungled it! But if we make a comparison of the performance of the leading Western powers with China’s, it is hard to justify this rejoicing.
The war in Ukraine is a Godsend for the US, and the best we can hope for is that it will continue for as long as possible, as it will ruin Russia. This is the opinion of an associate fellow from Chatham House, a think tank closely related to the UK Government, and frequent contributor to NATO related institutions as the Atlantic Council. Unfortunately, he probably reflects the thinking of influential circles in the US, UK and NATO. If that is the case, it may indeed end up being a very long war.
Why does most of the world not participate in the sanctions against Russia?
In the UN, Russia has been condemned for its war in Ukraine by an overwhelming majority of nations. Despite this, very few countries outside NATO+ are joining the sanctions against Russia. How come that the Global South is unwilling to support the sanctions? And will it be possible for the US to twist the arms of these unwilling countries to get them to align?
Whether there will be a technological and trade decoupling between China and NATO+ is not up for discussion any longer – it is already ongoing. What we still don’t know, is how far it will go, and how fast. A vicious political circle may imply that it will go very far, and very fast, at least if the US is to decide. Whether China will be able to prosper despite this technology war, is anybody’s guess. My guess is that it will.