Thorbjorn Waagstein

Thorbjorn Waagstein

Thorbjørn Waagstein, Economist, PhD, since 1999 working as international Development Consultant in Latin America, Africa and Asia.

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US president Donald Trump won the elections on a promise to solve US’ domestic problems. As so many US presidents before him, he hasn’t delivered on this promise and has instead started new military adventures in far-away countries. The successful operation to kidnap the Venezuelan president has apparently given him an appetite for more. That spells danger for the rest of the world. And for the US.

The international political and economic system is under reconfiguration, and China is fundamental for this process. China has for decades been a rapidly surging economic power, but will it continue? The country faces many challenges, and there are, as always, China observers predicting doom. This is nothing new. But just because doom-sayers have been wrong up to now, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they are wrong again. However, they probably are.

Sunday, 28 December 2025 22:48
Published in Politics

Why does the European Union say that China is a threat?

There is no doubt that China, an increasingly competitive economic power, represents an economic challenge to the EU. However, the European leaders' discourse goes far beyond the economic challenge. Now China is described as a military threat. Among the most hawkish China-haters are EU President Ursula von der Leyen, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. It remains a mystery what they want to achieve.

Saturday, 15 November 2025 22:14
Published in Economics and politics

The European Union’s bad choices

The main reason that the EU, unlike China, gave in to Donald Trump’s tariff assault without a fight, is not that the EU’s trade dependency on the US is much greater than China’s, but rather that it has other priorities, first of all Ukraine; its military depends on the US; its bureaucracy is not well fit for this type of struggle; and it lacks internal coherence if it should choose to fight back. It is therefore an easy prey for a predator like Trump.

Trump has easily rolled over his allied vassal states as the EU, Japan and several smaller countries. He says he has rolled over India too, even if that claim looks a bit dubious. But with China he finally met somebody that could give he some real resistance. First round was 1-0 to China. There are several more rounds to come. Good luck, Mr. Trump!

Donald Trump has deployed a strong naval force close to Venezuelan shores. It is not clear what he will do with it, as it is too big to keep indefinitely deployed and too small for a full-scale invasion. He says he wants regime change. How will he achieve that? And can he?

The gold price has during the last decade only gone in one direction: up! In 2025 alone, it has increased by almost 50%. Is this a bubble driven by speculation, or is something more serious going on in the world? The latter is the most likely.

US President Donald Trump wants to transfer the responsibility for the Ukraine war to the EU. He has mockingly assured that Ukraine with the support from EU can win the war and restore the 1991 borders. US will happily sell them the weapons, but EU has to pay. So now the EU countries are looking deep into their wallets. Will they succeed in continuing the war until the bitter end?

Ukrainian President, Vladimir Zelensky, and the EU can breathe a sigh of relief. The danger of peace in Ukraine has passed. Trump says he is disappointed with the Russians, and he has assured that Ukraine can win the war and restore the 1991 borders. He promised support with US weapons for as long as it takes, on the condition that somebody else pays. Why did Trump fail?

Wednesday, 17 September 2025 21:20
Published in Economics and politics

What are the results of Trump’s tariff war?

US President Donald Trump thinks that the main problem in the US economy is the persistent deficit in foreign trade. His preferred tool is tariffs. He is using tariffs and the threat of more tariffs to impose commercial deals on friends and foes to bring down imports and increase exports. Has it worked?

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