We are in the middle of big changes in the global world order. As is often the case, it is difficult to perceive the magnitude of what is happening when you are in the middle of it. It is like not being able to see the forest for all the trees. But the changes are big, and I think the years 2023-2024 will afterwards be seen as the watershed years. The winners are the countries of the Global South, China and Russia. The main loser is the European Union.

A new a multi-polar world is dawning on us. This has implications for all corners of the world, but not least for Europe, the cradle of the two world wars. The dominating powers in Europe are US-lead NATO in the military sphere and EU in the economic and political sphere. According to both, all would be well in Europe had it not been for Russia which is a malign power trying to subdue independent countries, sowing confusion and distrust within the EU and threatening the continent with military invasion. They both need to reconsider and think harder if they are serious about conserving a lasting peace in Europa.

Should people have the right to move freely between countries? As it is well known, in large parts of the world, capital is already moving freely. And well-off people can move freely: in many developed countries, if you promise to invest enough, you get a permanent residence permit. But why limit this to well-off people? Why not let all people move as they want? It is a good question. But apart from the well-known problems in the country receiving the migrants, it is often overlooked that massive migrations carry high costs for the migrants. And the countries they leave behind tend to get stuck in a low level of development.

The EU is obviously in trouble as confidence in the Union is dropping in many member countries. Of course there are many explanations, some of these related to the life of the politicians in Brussels, disconnected from the people of their home countries. But unfortunately, the problems go much deeper. EU has simply not been up to the job it was supposed to do and has concentrated on the wrong issues. The drive to enlarge the EU with Turkey and Ukraine may be the last straw to break the camel’s back.