Apparently inspired by Donald Trump’s success in seizing ships carrying Venezuelan oil and confiscating and selling the cargo, and now his success in completely blocking all shipping of oil products to Cuba, the EU has recently decided that it too wants to be part of this new world order and do the same with Russian oil. Has any thought been given to how Russia will react, and what the consequences will be for the right to freedom of navigation on the world’s oceans? A right on which the EU itself is critically dependent.

It has been announced that NATO will go to war with Russia in 2030. That is what Merz, Mette, Stubb, Rutte and all the others are saying. It is not a risk. It is a fact. The public must prepare themselves, they say. So how will this war unfold? We are given no explanation. But perhaps the US war with Iran might give us an idea of how it will happen.

The last few months have seen it become a fact that the tide of war in Ukraine has finally turned. So at last the hundreds of billions of Euro and dollars that NATO countries have poured into Ukraine, and the hundreds of thousands of sacrificed Ukrainian soldiers, are finally being justified, aren't they? Sorry to say it, but the answer is no.

The last few months have seen it become a fact that the tide of war in Ukraine has finally turned. So at last the hundreds of billions of Euro and dollars that NATO countries have poured into Ukraine, and the hundreds of thousands of sacrificed Ukrainian soldiers, are finally being justified, aren't they? Sorry to say it, but the answer is no.

US President Donald Trump wants to transfer the responsibility for the Ukraine war to the EU. He has mockingly assured that Ukraine with the support from EU can win the war and restore the 1991 borders. US will happily sell them the weapons, but EU has to pay. So now the EU countries are looking deep into their wallets. Will they succeed in continuing the war until the bitter end?

Ukrainian President, Vladimir Zelensky, and the EU can breathe a sigh of relief. The danger of peace in Ukraine has passed. Trump says he is disappointed with the Russians, and he has assured that Ukraine can win the war and restore the 1991 borders. He promised support with US weapons for as long as it takes, on the condition that somebody else pays. Why did Trump fail?

The EU is worried that Donald Trump returning to the White House will mean peace in Ukraine, as Trump has claimed that he can achieve peace on his first day in office. That is unlikely to happen. The reason is that Trump will have to show that he has made a bargain which favours the US, but Russia is unlikely to deliver that. So the war is more likely to continue in 2025, and may even escalate before it ends. Unfortunately. I sincerely hope I am wrong.

As it is often stated, all wars must eventually end, and that is also valid for the Ukraine war. War fatigue is now clearly observable in Ukraine and among some of Ukraine’s Western backers, despite repeated insistence on continuing ‘as long as it takes’. There has up to now been a tacit agreement within NATO not to discuss the option of a negotiated peace openly, so the mantra is still that Putin is the new Hitler and anything but a Russian defeat is unacceptable. But rumours are that discussions are now ongoing in the corridors.

The President of Ukraine, Volodymir Zelensky, has taken advantage of the state of emergency in the country to concentrate all powers in his hands, including deciding how the war shall be conducted. Before winning the elections in 2019 he was an actor (and comedian). Perhaps this is why he is so obsessed with the media, and this may explain his many weird, and apparently self-defeating, decisions. Striving for short-term media successes when leading a country in war, does not bother well.

As defeat is looming for NATO in Ukraine, what will NATO do? Call it quit, negotiate and try to get the best out of it – even if it will not look good? Refuse to accept the defeat and continue to the bitter end, even if that may cost tens or hundreds of thousands more lives and finally ending in losing it all? Escalate and send NATO troops to Ukraine? This is a very dangerous historic moment.