The Ukrainian Government does not provide any numbers on the dead and injured as it is considered a State Secret, but a study by Kiyv International Institute for Sociology (KIIS) conducted between May 26 and June 5 this year, shows that “The absolute majority of Ukrainians - 78% - have close relatives or friends who were injured or killed due to the Russian invasion”. 64% reported to have at least one close relative or friend who was injured (on average, they have 5 injured close people), and 63% who died (on average they have 3 deceased loved ones). This is a huge increase from the last survey in February 2023, which found that 17% of Ukrainians reported a loss, while the figure in September 2022 was " just" 9%.
As mentioned, it is not easy to convert this into a total number of injured and death, but what is clear is that the losses are horrendous and that they are increasing rapidly. We are probably not talking about tens of thousands but rather hundreds of thousands. It is worth remembering that the much heralded Ukrainian counter-offensive to take back Donbas and Crimea, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are incurring huge losses, had not started yet when the study was carried out.
This is insane. It is difficult to find words for it.
The Government in Kiyv has responded to these losses with wave after wave of enlisting of conscripts. As we know, all men between 18 and 60 are considered potential conscripts and it is prohibited for them to leave the country (even if many escape illegally). Videos showing how men are taken by force in the streets, shopping centres and even discotheques and brought to the enlistment centres have flourished for a long time on the Ukrainian social media, here and here are some examples. Now reporting on the lack of enthusiasm for being recruited and sent to the front has even found its way into the Western media, which normally only report on Russian recruitment challenges (see for example here, here, here, and here). After the heavy losses during the counter-offensive since the start of June, the Government in Kyiv is stepping up drafting to fill the void left by the fallen, and it has been reported that in parts of the country they are now requiring all men between 18 and 60 to show up at the enlistment offices, without receiving a personal summons.
Ukrainian soldiers caught in a minefield during the counter-offensive in Zaporizhia province. The video taken from a drone shows one of the soldiers jumping on a mine and losing his leg. Nausea-bond videos like this are all over the social media.
And why are all these thousands and thousands of men, mostly humble workers and many of them middle-aged, being sacrificed?
We all know that in this war it is NATO who calls the shots – not Zelensky, the Poles, the Baltic countries or increasingly belligerent Denmark. The inept EU foreign secretary Joseph Borrell for once said something right: “'If we don't support Ukraine, Ukraine will fall in a matter of days'”. Game over. The support from NATO countries props up the Government in Kyiv – money to pay the civil servants, the soldiers, the social benefits and military hardware for the army. So the Ukrainian Government is completely in the hands of NATO. If the killing shall be stopped, NATO has the key.
In a recent speech the US Foreign Secretary has explained why the US does not support a ceasefire to stop the killings. “Now, over the coming weeks and months, some countries will call for a ceasefire. And on the surface, that sounds sensible – attractive, even. After all, who doesn’t want warring parties to lay down their arms? Who doesn’t want the killing to stop? But a ceasefire that simply freezes current lines in place and enables Putin to consolidate control over the territory he’s seized, and then rest, re-arm, and re-attack – that is not a just and lasting peace. It’s a Potemkin peace. It would legitimize Russia’s land grab. It would reward the aggressor and punish the victim.”
When you get lyric, you can say with Ursula von der Leyen: "Ukraine is on the front line of the defence of everything we Europeans cherish: our liberty, our democracy, our freedom of thought and speech. Courageously, Ukraine is fighting for the ideals of Europe that we celebrate today." “Ukraine is the beating heart of today's European values". So no way, the killings have to continue for the sake of the values and the freedom of Europe. General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said this clearly on June 30: "What I had said was this is going to take six, eight, ten weeks, it's going to be very difficult. It's going to be very long, and it's going to be very, very bloody. And no-one should have any illusions about any of that." So for the US, EU and most EU governments, there is only one way to stop the killings and that is more killings. Killings now to avoid more killings in the future. The goal is to defeat Russia, or weaken it so thoroughly that it will prefer to pull out and hand Donbas and Crimea over to the Ukrainian Government. Whatever it takes. And it will take thousands and thousands more Ukrainian lives.
But let us forget the Ursula lyrics and try to understand what all these thousands of people are sacrificed for. Unless you believe in the optimistic predictions that the Ukrainian army with the help of NATO weapons will win the war, then unfortunately the answer is: for nothing. Or, what is worse, the longer the conflict goes on, the greater the setbacks for Ukrainian nationalists. NATO is sacrificing them.
The signing of the Minsk-2 agreements, 11–12 February 2015. Petro Poroshenko (to the right) now says he had no intention to implement them – he only wanted to win time. François Hollande and Angela Merkel (to the left of Poroshenko) now also say the same. That makes Putin and Lukashenko (to the left) look like naive fools – they were taken for a ride. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements#/media/File:Normandy_format_talks_in_Minsk_(February_2015)_03.jpeg
The history since 2014 is a history of lost opportunities for the Ukrainian nationalists. In 2014, the Minsk agreements provided Ukraine with an opportunity to keep the rebel Donbas region – even if they would have had to give the region some autonomy. Then president Petro Poroshenko now says he only signed it to win time, so Ukraine could rearm and retake Donbas by force. Six years later, before the invasion, Russia proposed NATO a security arrangement which included a ban on Ukraine entering NATO and a limit to the deployment of troops and weapons to NATO’s eastern flank. This was rejected hands down, and the invasion began shortly after. A couple of weeks after the start of the invasion, talks between Ukraine and Russia were, according to the Turkish mediators, close to reaching a deal, but the negotiations were abruptly abandoned by Ukraine (some claim it was after Boris Johnson’s personal intervention). Hundreds of thousands of lives could have been spared if one of these opportunities had been grabbed, and Ukraine would not be facing today the loss of its southern regions in addition to Donbas.
According to the Ukrainian president Zelensky, the goal is to expel the Russians from Ukraine, at whatever cost. In October 2022 he even signed a decree ruling out negotiations with president Putin. So the strategy is to continue the war at whatever cost, and he assures that they will win, if just they get enough weapons from NATO. General Milley also thinks so: “Ukraine Has Leadership, Morale to Beat Russia. The people of Ukraine are emboldened, and NATO has never been stronger."
Thus, the decision has been made by Zelensky, the US and the EU to let the killings continue until the Russians are defeated. Which probably is never. So Ukrainian workers and other common people, young and old, will continue to be sent to die in the trenches. For nothing.
Wars normally end when either one party wins or there is a stalemate and both parties are war-wearied. I don’t believe this war will end because one of the parties runs out of missiles, ammunition, tanks or whatever. Despite all the hand-wringing, the US - and also EU - have an enormous weapons industry that is more than willing to produce all the weapons and munitions Ukraine demands - if their governments put up the money. Russia has its weapon factories running at full capacity, and is opening new production lines. So there will be weapons and ammunition enough to continue for many, many years. But what about people? Here the numbers are in Russia’s favour, as its population is at 6-7 times bigger than what is left of Ukraine after the loss of territory and 8 million fleeing abroad. As noted above, as losses mount, the Ukrainians seem to become increasingly reluctant to enlist and be sent to the front. Perhaps, as forced mobilisation becomes more and more common and people start to resist, this may bring NATO and the Ukrainian Government to the negotiation table. But this may be wishful thinking. The mantra just now is: “As long as it takes – or until the last Ukrainian”.
This is not about whether the Russian invasion of Ukraine is illegal (it is) and unprovoked (it is not). But let us for the moment say that it is both. Still, NATO’s “as long as it takes” strategy is not in the best interest of the Ukrainian people. It may be in NATO’s interest to let this senseless bloodbath continue, as NATO in the words of General Milley “has never been stronger”. In other words: A wonderful war. For NATO. But not for the people of Ukraine.
It is stomach-turning seeing self-righteous Western politicians (centre, left, right, green – any colour) talking about the moral necessity for the war to continue to defeat evil. They are with open eyes, consciously, dragging thousands and thousands of increasingly unwilling Ukrainians to the slaughterhouse. For nothing. And feeling good, doing it.
