In the latest UN vote on 12th of October 2022 condemning Russia for the annexation of the areas of Ukraine under its control, 143 countries voted for the resolution, 5 against and 35 abstained. Several big non-aligned countries abstained, among these China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Ethiopia and South Africa, and other big developing countries that voted for the condemnation still refuse to participate in the sanctions against Russia, as for example Indonesia, Bangladesh, Egypt, Brazil, and Mexico. The map below makes the point.
Blue: Russia. Red: Countries sanctioning Russia. It is an error in the wikipedia map that Greenland is not shown in red colour, as it is part of Denmark and hence also party to the sanctions. Japan is still only partly participating in the sanctions (for example, it continues its participation in the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project). Wikimedia.
This lack of enthusiasm is received with astonishment in the West. Here we have a clear case of a big country invading a smaller neighbour and annexing part of its land, a flagrant violation of the rights of a sovereign country as established in the UN charter. Sanctions should be supported by the same overwhelming majority as the vote in the UN condemning Russia, shouldn’t it? But it is obviously not the case.
What is then the reason for the countries in the Global South to refuse to participate? There are of course many different reasons, but basically it is because they see this as a conflict between NATO and Russia, which they have no reason to get involved in. A statement by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in an answer to the South African Parliament in March 2022 is quite representative for this opinion: "The war could have been avoided if NATO had heeded the warnings from amongst its own leaders and officials over the years that its eastward expansion would lead to greater, not less, instability in the region". The Mexican President, Andreas Manuel López Obrador stated in June 2022: “How easy it is to say, ’Here, I’ll send you this much money for weapons’. Couldn’t the war in Ukraine have been avoided? Of course, it could.” They don’t see this conflict as the US and EU wants them to see it: as a war between good and evil, between democracy and autocracy, between civilisation and barbarie, between defenders and violators of human rights and so on.
For some countries, their reluctance to participate is because of a basic disliking of unilateral sanctions in general. There is no doubt this is an important reason for much of Africa and Latin America. Both continents are sensitive to the highbrow moralizing by their former colonial masters, which they see as a “neocolonialism”. You know: teaching the savages the difference between right and wrong. And many countries in the Global South would much prefer a multi-polar world, which diminishes the risk of suddenly being targeted by sanctions and thus gives them more room for manoeuvre.
The biggest price for NATO+ in the international lobbying against Russia was, and still is, China and India. Together, they have around 38% of the world population, and they are the biggest and the third-biggest economies in the world respectively (in purchasing power terms). Both countries insist that they have taken a neutral stand and want the conflict to be solved through negotiations.
There were initially high hopes that China would participate at least partly in the sanctions as the country is so dependent on the West in trade and technology that it would be in its own interest to avoid antagonizing the NATO+. There are many big companies in China, including state-owned ones, that are treading very carefully to avoid being targeted with direct or secondary sanctions by the US. But from a political point of view, as the hostility against China is increasing in both the US and the EU, even if Russia is insignificant as a trade partner compared to the US and EU, a strong Russia which is not subdued to NATO is of strategic importance to China. A nightmare for China would be to have a NATO-aligned Russia to the North at the same time as it is confronting US military power in the East and South. And at the same time, being “well-behaved” is no guarantee against US sanctions. If a company is considered a potential competitor to the US in a high-tech industry, it is likely sooner or later to end up on the sanctions list. So even if China continues its neutral stance in the Ukraine conflict, and it has an interest in the conflict ending as soon as possible, it has a clear interest in Russia not being defeated and subdued.
India is in a very different position, as it has been singled out by the US as a strategic partner in containing and confronting China, for example, by its inclusion in the military “Quad” alliance (US, India, Japan, and Australia). On the other hand, India has a frosty relationship with Pakistan and an uneasy relationship with China. At the same time, India has a long-time close political and military relationship with Russia (and before that with the Soviet Union), and even if it now has started buying weapons from the US, around 70 % of its military equipment is still of Soviet or Russian origin. Despite furious US resistance, India in 2018 bought the advanced Russian air-defence system S-400, and Russia is presently expanding the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant in Tamil Nadu to 6 Gigawatt. India is looking for its own interests, and it has no interest in being forced to pick a side in NATO’s military confrontation with Russia. It is happy to see US companies relocate from China to India, but for the Indians the risk of a future alignment between Russia, Pakistan and China is a nightmare. So my guess is that it will give in to the US pressure in some areas (for example, buying more US weapon systems), but it will keep its neutral stance on the war.
Indonesia, the world’s seventh-biggest economy (after Germany and Russia), is a traditional US ally. It has recently been bullied into abandoning an agreed purchase of Russian SU-35 fighter jets (and buying US and French jets instead), but even so it has resisted the pressure to join the sanctions against Russia (and insisted on inviting Russia to the upcoming G20 meeting on 15-16 November 2022 in Bali). The same is the case for other big countries such as Brazil, Mexico and Turkey (number 8, 12 and 13 respectively on the list of the world’s biggest economies). Some or all of these countries may change their position, should Russia be defeated in Ukraine, but unless that is the case, they are unlikely to do so. In the case of India and Brazil, none of the political parties, right or left, are proposing to join the sanctions.
President of Indonesia, Joko Widodo, visits Russia, June 30, 2022. He came in for heavy critique from the West, despite also visiting Ukraine. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68787
However, the smaller developing countries are in a more delicate situation, as pressure is put on them from the US and EU. If the world economy enters into recession in 2023, and international interest rates continue to be high, many of these may need emergency loans or debt relief, which may be linked to a change in their stand on Russia. A draft law has been approved in the US congress (but not in the Senate yet) called “Countering Malign Russia Activities”, directed at punishing African countries that don’t support the sanctions against Russia. In the draft law, it is stated: ‘It is the sense of Congress that the United States should regularly assess the scale and scope of the Russian Federation’s influence and activities in Africa that undermine United States objectives and interests; and determine how to address and counter such influence and activities effectively, including through appropriate United States foreign assistance programs; and to hold accountable the Russian Federation and African governments and their officials who are complicit in aiding such malign influence and activities.’ The draft law has been condemned by the African countries. At a meeting in The Southern African Development Community (SADC) in DR Congo, August 2022, the 16 Heads of State and Governments vehemently expressed their collective opposition to the proposed law, complaining that the US has made the African continent “the target of unilateral and punitive measures”.
South African President, Cyril Ramaphosa, visits Biden. 16 September 2022. Biden did not succeed in getting support for the sanctions against Russia. https://twitter.com/PresidencyZA/status/1570900255381803014
The lack of understanding in the West of the positions taken in the Global South is the result of a narrow US and EU-centric world view, which dominates most of both the political right and left. When you live in a small Latin American country, as I do (and have done for decades), it strikes you how differently the Ukraine war is seen from Europe and Latin America (and Africa where I frequently work). The general reaction is horror at seeing how the Europeans are killing each other in what more and more looks like a medieval religious war. The Ukraine war does not take up much space in the media or in the public debate – it is marginal news, the same way as the horrendous wars in Yemen, Ethiopia, and Palestine are marginal news in Europe and the US. The general reaction among Latin American colleagues and friends is mild astonishment: why do these crazy Europeans and Americans not sit down and talk and find a peaceful solution? Have they lost their mind? And then the worry: are these crazy guys going to take us all down in a Nuclear Armageddon?
Then, who are the ‘civilized’ and who are the ‘savages’?
