It is increasingly clear that Russia is unlikely to be defeated militarily by NATO in Ukraine, and it looks as if its economy will be able to overcome the obstacles created by the unprecedented sanctions. The sanctions and the war have produced profound changes in the Russian economy and society, including within the ruling classes, the contours of which by now it is only partly possible to discern. So what does its future look like after the Ukraine war ends?

Russia is struggling to control a stubbornly high inflation. The Russian Central Bank blames the shortage of manpower, which in their view is producing ‘wage-push-inflation’, so they want unemployment to go up by stopping economic growth. But there are other ways to control inflation that would be more beneficial to common people in Russia.

After a period of relative calm, mainstream media have lately, once again, been flooded with articles predicting the imminent collapse of Russia’s economy. The sanctions, together with the financial burden of the war in Ukraine, should finally be working, so Russia is now under severe strain, and we will in 2025 see the collapse. Is there any truth in this?

Despite his rhetoric, the new Trump presidency means more continuity than break with the Biden Administration. However, there are a few issues, where there may be a break with the past. One of these is the stop for immigration and deportation of ‘unauthorised’ immigrants. This will affect both the countries where the immigrants come from and the US itself.

The EU is worried that Donald Trump returning to the White House will mean peace in Ukraine, as Trump has claimed that he can achieve peace on his first day in office. That is unlikely to happen. The reason is that Trump will have to show that he has made a bargain which favours the US, but Russia is unlikely to deliver that. So the war is more likely to continue in 2025, and may even escalate before it ends. Unfortunately. I sincerely hope I am wrong.