Thorbjorn Waagstein

Thorbjorn Waagstein

Thorbjørn Waagstein, Economist, PhD, since 1999 working as international Development Consultant in Latin America, Africa and Asia.

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Donald Trump has deployed a strong naval force close to Venezuelan shores. It is not clear what he will do with it, as it is too big to keep indefinitely deployed and too small for a full-scale invasion. He says he wants regime change. How will he achieve that? And can he?

The gold price has during the last decade only gone in one direction: up! In 2025 alone, it has increased by almost 50%. Is this a bubble driven by speculation, or is something more serious going on in the world? The latter is the most likely.

US President Donald Trump wants to transfer the responsibility for the Ukraine war to the EU. He has mockingly assured that Ukraine with the support from EU can win the war and restore the 1991 borders. US will happily sell them the weapons, but EU has to pay. So now the EU countries are looking deep into their wallets. Will they succeed in continuing the war until the bitter end?

Ukrainian President, Vladimir Zelensky, and the EU can breathe a sigh of relief. The danger of peace in Ukraine has passed. Trump says he is disappointed with the Russians, and he has assured that Ukraine can win the war and restore the 1991 borders. He promised support with US weapons for as long as it takes, on the condition that somebody else pays. Why did Trump fail?

Wednesday, 17 September 2025 21:20
Published in Economics and politics

What are the results of Trump’s tariff war?

US President Donald Trump thinks that the main problem in the US economy is the persistent deficit in foreign trade. His preferred tool is tariffs. He is using tariffs and the threat of more tariffs to impose commercial deals on friends and foes to bring down imports and increase exports. Has it worked?

Saturday, 13 September 2025 22:22
Published in Economics and politics

Is there any logic in Trump's tariff war?

US President Trump is using tariffs and the threat of more tariffs to push for favourable trade deals with friends and foes. His stated goals are to reduce the US trade deficit, raise revenue for the Treasury to reduce the persistent government budget deficit, and force private companies to move production to the US. But is there any logic to what he is doing? Or is he just a madman romping around like a bull in a china shop?

The US president Donald Trump has steam-rolled friends and foes alike with tariffs and threats of more tariffs if they don’t accept a deal on terms dictated by the US. Some, as the EU, have capitulated without a fight, making themselves the laughingstock of the world. But other countries are resisting these bullying tactics. To the Trump team’s surprise, one of these is India.

The strategic decision of the European countries to stand unconditionally by Israel despite the genocide and ethnic cleansing taking place in Gaza and the occupied West Bank can be difficult to understand. It greatly damages the European countries' reputation in the Global South and among their own populations. It smacks from afar of double standards, and one would have to be blind not to see that. The talk of "European values" comes across as what it is: empty talk.

A new political consensus has formed within the European NATO countries. It is argued that as they can no longer count on an automatic US security guarantee, they face an existential threat and there is therefore an urgent need for a dramatic rearming. They should be prepared for a war with Russia within 3-4 years, it is said. This consensus is supported by the whole political spectrum, from right to left. Only problem: facts don’t support it.

Life was easier in politics during the 40 years of neoliberal globalisation, as it would set strict limits for what the politicians could do. Whatever they proposed, they had to argue that the markets, and in particular the hyper-mobile international capital, would accept it. With the demise of neoliberal globalisation we have a new situation.

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