A new political consensus has formed within the European NATO countries. It is argued that as they can no longer count on an automatic US security guarantee, they face an existential threat and there is therefore an urgent need for a dramatic rearming. They should be prepared for a war with Russia within 3-4 years, it is said. This consensus is supported by the whole political spectrum, from right to left. Only problem: facts don’t support it.

Everybody has probably heard about Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez' weapon deals. Tanks and anti-air missiles from Russia, warships from Spain, training jets from China, air defence systems from Belarus. The US has expressed its concern that Venezuela is provoking an arms race in South America. Its actions could endanger regional stability the US says. Really? Venezuela is number 5 in Latin America in military spending, both in absolute terms and as percentage of GDP. The Latin American leaders in military spending are two close US allies: Colombia and Chile, which in relative terms spend almost three times what Venezuela does.