A new political consensus has formed within the European NATO countries. It is argued that as they can no longer count on an automatic US security guarantee, they face an existential threat and there is therefore an urgent need for a dramatic rearming. They should be prepared for a war with Russia within 3-4 years, it is said. This consensus is supported by the whole political spectrum, from right to left. Only problem: facts don’t support it.

Life was easier in politics during the 40 years of neoliberal globalisation, as it would set strict limits for what the politicians could do. Whatever they proposed, they had to argue that the markets, and in particular the hyper-mobile international capital, would accept it. With the demise of neoliberal globalisation we have a new situation.

After being the dominant policy globally for 40 years, the neoliberal globalisation has been discretely ditched by the advanced economies. However, this doesn’t mean a general abandonment of neoliberalism, but rather a modification of how globalisation works. The main other elements of neoliberalism are still intact, but there may be some new opportunities for policies in favour of common people. Maybe. Or maybe not.

Things don’t look particularly good for the EU lately. Economic stagnation, reports pointing to falling competitivity in key sectors, negative economic impact of the sanctions, increasing financial burden from the Ukraine war, caught up in the middle of the US-China confrontation, and so on. There are ways out of this, but political and institutional factors question the ability of EU to succeed.

It is increasingly clear that Russia is unlikely to be defeated militarily by NATO in Ukraine, and it looks as if its economy will be able to overcome the obstacles created by the unprecedented sanctions. The sanctions and the war have produced profound changes in the Russian economy and society, including within the ruling classes, the contours of which by now it is only partly possible to discern. So what does its future look like after the Ukraine war ends?

Russia is struggling to control a stubbornly high inflation. The Russian Central Bank blames the shortage of manpower, which in their view is producing ‘wage-push-inflation’, so they want unemployment to go up by stopping economic growth. But there are other ways to control inflation that would be more beneficial to common people in Russia.

After a period of relative calm, mainstream media have lately, once again, been flooded with articles predicting the imminent collapse of Russia’s economy. The sanctions, together with the financial burden of the war in Ukraine, should finally be working, so Russia is now under severe strain, and we will in 2025 see the collapse. Is there any truth in this?

Despite his rhetoric, the new Trump presidency means more continuity than break with the Biden Administration. However, there are a few issues, where there may be a break with the past. One of these is the stop for immigration and deportation of ‘unauthorised’ immigrants. This will affect both the countries where the immigrants come from and the US itself.

The EU is worried that Donald Trump returning to the White House will mean peace in Ukraine, as Trump has claimed that he can achieve peace on his first day in office. That is unlikely to happen. The reason is that Trump will have to show that he has made a bargain which favours the US, but Russia is unlikely to deliver that. So the war is more likely to continue in 2025, and may even escalate before it ends. Unfortunately. I sincerely hope I am wrong.

It may look weird to question whether Israel has a future, when it is just now successfully quashing its enemies Hamas and Hizbollah with US support. They are winning, so of course they have a future, right? Firstly, are they really winning? And secondly, Israel is a settler-colonialist project which has turned into an apartheid state. Their strategy is to drive out the Palestinians from Greater Israel, and they are counting on the world looking the other way while they do it. Will it? Will we?