It may look weird to question whether Israel has a future, when it is just now successfully quashing its enemies Hamas and Hizbollah with US support. They are winning, so of course they have a future, right? Firstly, are they really winning? And secondly, Israel is a settler-colonialist project which has turned into an apartheid state. Their strategy is to drive out the Palestinians from Greater Israel, and they are counting on the world looking the other way while they do it. Will it? Will we?
Thorbjorn Waagstein
Thorbjørn Waagstein, Economist, PhD, since 1999 working as international Development Consultant in Latin America, Africa and Asia.
All wars eventually end. So will the Ukraine war.
As it is often stated, all wars must eventually end, and that is also valid for the Ukraine war. War fatigue is now clearly observable in Ukraine and among some of Ukraine’s Western backers, despite repeated insistence on continuing ‘as long as it takes’. There has up to now been a tacit agreement within NATO not to discuss the option of a negotiated peace openly, so the mantra is still that Putin is the new Hitler and anything but a Russian defeat is unacceptable. But rumours are that discussions are now ongoing in the corridors.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymir Zelensky, has taken advantage of the state of emergency in the country to concentrate all powers in his hands, including deciding how the war shall be conducted. Before winning the elections in 2019 he was an actor (and comedian). Perhaps this is why he is so obsessed with the media, and this may explain his many weird, and apparently self-defeating, decisions. Striving for short-term media successes when leading a country in war, does not bother well.
Emigration is not a road to development
NATO has a deal with the Ukrainian government: ‘we provide money and weapons, and you provide the soldiers’. The Ukrainian government is now using increasingly harsh and violent methods to capture its unwilling citizens and send them to an almost secure death in the trenches. This effort is applauded by the NATO countries. The politicians, right and left, couldn’t care less about the fate of the Ukrainian men who against their will are sent to the killing fields. This is a necessary sacrifice for the good cause.
To catch up with the developed countries, developing countries need to use common sense, not neoliberal recipes
When developing countries try to catch up with the developed countries, there are many challenges. Will they be allowed to protect the new industries, they are trying to set up? Can they get funding for the huge investments needed? Can they get their economic policy right? It is not easy, but history tells us that it is not impossible.
The developmentalist state and crony-capitalism
As many developing countries are now turning to ‘developmentalism’ to close the gap to the developed countries, it is worth looking at what lessons can be learned from history regarding the failures and successes of the developmentalist state. One of the main hurdles for developmentalism is political: is it possible to create a strong political coalition and institutions that will back this policy for a prolonged period?
It is time to dust off some old ideas about economic development
As neo-liberalism has turned out not to work for developing countries, many of them are now looking elsewhere for other policy options. Which options do they have? Can they imitate what Japan, the South-East Asian ‘tigers’ and China have done? That will not be easy, but some lessons can be learned.
No reason to fear Russian disinformation: The West is disinforming itself surprisingly well on its own
Disinformation campaigns are unfortunately normal parts of political rivalry, and they are certainly even more prominent during wars. Successful disinformation can be a powerful tool. However, there is a risk that you end up believing your own disinformation, and that means that fatal decisions are taken on false premises. That is what seems to be happening in the Ukraine war. And that is extremely dangerous.
However you look at it, China’s economy surpasses that of the US
Is the Chinese economy bigger than that of the US, or is it the other way round? Both statements are repeatedly seen in the headlines of the media. The answer boils down to whether you look at GDP in market prices or you correct for what you can buy for the money (purchasing power). But there are also other ways to measure the relative strength of the two economies and the result is the same. China inevitable comes out at the top.