Sometimes you wish you were wrong. In an article on this website around two months before Russia invaded Ukraine, I predicted that war was the most likely outcome, as US and NATO had clearly stated they didn’t accept Russia’s “red line”: the demand that NATO stop its eastward expansion. I asked whether NATO believed the Russians were bluffing, or whether they had decided to throw Ukraine under the bus. Unfortunately, it seems the decision was to sacrifice Ukraine.

Sunday, 14 November 2021 18:18

How to conserve the peace in Europa

A new a multi-polar world is dawning on us. This has implications for all corners of the world, but not least for Europe, the cradle of the two world wars. The dominating powers in Europe are US-lead NATO in the military sphere and EU in the economic and political sphere. According to both, all would be well in Europe had it not been for Russia which is a malign power trying to subdue independent countries, sowing confusion and distrust within the EU and threatening the continent with military invasion. They both need to reconsider and think harder if they are serious about conserving a lasting peace in Europa.

The EU is obviously in trouble as confidence in the Union is dropping in many member countries. Of course there are many explanations, some of these related to the life of the politicians in Brussels, disconnected from the people of their home countries. But unfortunately, the problems go much deeper. EU has simply not been up to the job it was supposed to do and has concentrated on the wrong issues. The drive to enlarge the EU with Turkey and Ukraine may be the last straw to break the camel’s back.

Independently of the outcome of the Paris Climate Change summit, big oil and coal have started an irreversible decline, facing the competition from renewable energies and an increasing political pressure to de-carbonize our societies. This changes completely the game and eliminates the incentive to reduce supply to get higher prices. In stead, the rush is now to exploit the oil and gas before it is too late. Who comes too late, loses. So OPEC has lost its power for good, and there is no chance it will get it back again.