Thorbjorn Waagstein

Thorbjorn Waagstein

Thorbjørn Waagstein, Economist, PhD, since 1999 working as international Development Consultant in Latin America, Africa and Asia.

Saturday, 16 January 2016 22:28
Published in Economics and politics

And now comes the hangover

There have been good prices for commodities during the last decade: oil, gas, minerals, agricultural products. Now prices have plummeted. This implies a sea change as commodities are again a buyers' market, as it has been the case for most of the second half of the last century. It tips the correlation of forces in favour of the developed countries against the developing countries, which are generally heavily dependent of the export of commodities. But some developed countries are suffering too.

Monday, 14 December 2015 21:31
Published in Renewable energy

Climate change – many villains and few heroes

The Paris summit ended with an agreement, fortunately. Not good enough to save our grandchildren from climate disaster, but at least a beginning, which we hopefully will be able to build upon. Apart from the climate change deniers, who live in their own claustrophobic world, much of the disagreement is about justice: which are the countries to blame, and which should clean up their acts first? The Paris summit tried to avoid the question of justice and convince us that we all have to contribute, including the developing countries. And the developing countries seem to have gruntingly accepted that.

Friday, 11 December 2015 23:29
Published in Economics and politics

The coming irrelevance of oil

Independently of the outcome of the Paris Climate Change summit, big oil and coal have started an irreversible decline, facing the competition from renewable energies and an increasing political pressure to de-carbonize our societies. This changes completely the game and eliminates the incentive to reduce supply to get higher prices. In stead, the rush is now to exploit the oil and gas before it is too late. Who comes too late, loses. So OPEC has lost its power for good, and there is no chance it will get it back again.

Journalists know that how they express things is important for the message they convey. This is particularly the case when there is a war going on. They are expected to act responsibly and support the national war effort, of course without keeping silent about uncomfortable facts – that would be self-censorship. So it is difficult manoeuvring. Here is a quick guide on what to write and what not to write.

Monday, 09 November 2015 23:43
Published in Politics

THE US-CUBA THAW – WHAT THAW?

The reestablishment of diplomatic relations between Cuba and the US is historic. From not talking together for more than 50 years, they now talk. From the press coverage you could get the impression that the relations between the two neighbouring countries are now almost normal. Alas, they are a very far cry from that. The embargo against Cuba has not been lifted and the financial embargo against the country has actually been tightened. European banks, which have broken none of their own countries' laws, have lately accepted breathtaking fines in the US – the last one of 8,900 million dollars for French bank BNP. Their crime: they have carried out financial transactions with Cuba, not from the US but from their home country. That is a criminal offence in the US.

Tuesday, 27 October 2015 00:00
Published in Economics and politics

THE PRESIDENT IN THE STRIPED SWEATER

Mention Bolivia, and for the last decade it has been difficult not to mention Evo too. Evo Morales was elected as president for the first time in 2005 with 54% of the votes, and he can now celebrate 10 years as president. An absolute outsider, brought forward by social movements of mainly indigenous farmers, workers and small traders, with a tough anti-imperialist and anti-capitalist discourse, he horrified the traditional economic and political elite and the “international community” alike. His government has lived through conflicts and crisis, bordering to civil war, but at the same time it has brought a decade of economic prosperity, dramatic reduction of poverty and a revaluation of the country's indigenous ethnic and cultural roots.

Monday, 19 October 2015 18:05
Published in Economics and politics

THE GRAND NICARAGUAN CANAL

A canal passing from the Pacifc Ocean to the Caribbean Sea has been a century long aspiration for Nicaragua, but when the US finally opened a canal in 1914, it was in Panama, not Nicaragua. After many false starts, the idea of a canal through Nicaragua looks suddenly as a possibility. But the question is, how realistic are the plans? And is it actually good for Nicaragua?

Saturday, 10 October 2015 00:00
Published in Politics

Putin – the man we love to hate

Vladimir Putin has in the West become the symbol of all that we don't like. He is aggressive, authoritarian, brutal and untrustworthy, and he has ice-cold blue eyes, showing no feelings. The perfect villain for a James Bond movie. Unfortunately, he is also quite intelligent, competent and well formulated, and contrary to his ailing predecessors he has good health and is even sporty. Most Russians tend to think he is a better president than the ones they had before him. But how we are longing back to the days of our good old, corrupt, incompetent and drunk Boris Yeltsin.

Wednesday, 07 October 2015 00:00
Published in Politics

Why do we always end up being allied with Al-Qaeda?

Russia's risky decision to get directly involved in the Syrian civil war has been met with furious protests from the Western powers. BBC reports that NATO has urged Russia to end air strikes "on the Syrian opposition and civilians". But who is it that we want to defend against the Russians bombing raids? Are they the long sought for “moderate secular” opposition forces, which now are being destroyed by the Russian raids? Hardly.

As oil prices have plummeted, they have overshadowed the other important reality: renewable energy prices are also falling. And contrary to oil prices, the fall will continue in the future. So renewables are becoming a viable and profitable alternative for electricity generation, helping the world to get off its dependency on fossil fuels. But what about cars? They are intimately linked to fossil fuels, or – if need be – biofuels, to make the internal combustion engine work. Worldwide, transport is actually responsible for around 27% of all energy consumption, and 63% of oil consumption. So is there any future for renewables here?

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